Morning Market Commentary 
Wednesday, October 8, 2025  

Good morning Team and welcome to the start of Hockey Season!

Today looks steady. The 10-year Treasury is a little lower and mortgage rates are holding in a tight three-week range. Because the government shutdown is delaying the big reports that usually move markets, traders are taking their cues from Fed comments and headlines instead of data. If nothing surprising hits the tape, expect small, orderly tweaks to rate sheets rather than big swings. Our focus: watch the 10-year around ~4.10% and listen for any tone change from the Fed minutes and speakers. Until then, it’s a stable, headline-driven day.”  

Treasury & MBS Check

• 10-Year UST: ~4.10–4.11% early (down ~1–2 bps vs. yesterday). The whole curve is a bit softer as the shutdown drags on.

• Curve flavor: 2-year roughly flat, 30-year a hair lower—long end remains sensitive to risk headlines and Fed chatter. 

Mortgage Rates (MND Daily Survey)

• 30-Yr Fixed: 6.38% (unch)

• 15-Yr Fixed: 5.90% (unch)

• 30-Yr Jumbo: 6.29% (+0.01)

• 7/6 SOFR ARM: 5.85% (+0.01)

• 30-Yr FHA: 6.08% (+0.01)

• 30-Yr VA: 6.10% (+0.01)
  MND notes rates have been in a very tight range for ~3 weeks—the last meaningful move came around the Sept 17–18 Fed cut, and even then rates rose afterward as follow-on data supported higher yields. Shutdown-light data flow is helping keep the range intact. 

Why Bonds Are Quiet / What Could Move Them

• Data blackout: With key reports delayed, the market is “flying by instruments,” relying on Fed speakers and smaller state and private economic releases. 

• Fed focus: FOMC minutes this afternoon and several Fed speakers (incl. Gov. Stephen Miran today; Chair Powell tomorrow) can nudge the 10 year treasury range. Futures still lean toward another quarter-point cut at month-end. 

What This Means for Today’s Rate Sheets

• With the 10-year near ~4.10%, expect lenders to hold prior pricing with modest intraday adjustments.

• Reprice risk (plain English):

  • Better if the 10-year drifts and holds under ~4.08–4.10% on a bid into Fed minutes.

  • Worse if the 10-year pops back above ~4.15–4.20% on risk-on equity tone or hawkish remarks. (Watch the long end.) YCharts

Lock / Float Playbook

• ≤15 days to close: Lock. Protect today’s stability during headline risk.

• 30–45 days: Lock bias; float only with alerts set and a 0.125–0.25% cushion.

• 60+ days / new builds: Use staggered locks (and builder credits) with planned checkpoints.

• Refi pass: If the borrower’s current rate is ~0.75%+ above today’s quote, run the numbers now; keep float-down options in mind where available.

Talking Points for Clients & Agents

• “Rates are steady because the usual data is delayed by the shutdown; Fed comments are steering the market today.” 

• “The 10-year sits near ~4.10%, which tends to keep rate sheets stable unless a big headline hits.” 

• “ARMs vs. fixed: The 7/6 SOFR ARM remains meaningfully below 30-yr fixed—good for shorter horizons; fixed makes sense for long-term peace of mind.” 

Today’s News

• Weekly MBA Mortgage Apps  - 

• Rates: The average 30-yr fixed in MBA’s survey dipped to 6.43% (from 6.46%) with charging 0.60 points on conforming loans (≤ $806,500).

• Demand: Total apps fell -4.7% week over week. Refinance activity fell  -8% week over week but is up  +18% year over year. Purchase  mainly held steady falling -1% week over week and is positive +14% year over year.

• ARMs rising: ARM share jumped to 9.5% (from 8.4%). A typical 5/1 ARM is ~1.0% lower than the 30-yr fixed, pulling some buyers/refi shoppers toward ARMs.

Bottom Line

Rates are stable and the 10-year sits near ~4.10%, so pricing should look familiar unless a Fed headline shakes things up. With the shutdown delaying big data, the market is taking cues from Fed minutes and speakers—small moves, not big swings. For near closings, lock the calm; for longer timelines, float tactically with alerts set on the 10-year. Use today to coach payment options (buydowns/ARMs) and protect files from last-minute poaching.

Quick actions for LOs:

• Inside 30 days: Lock your loans.

• 30–45 days: Lock bias; float only with a 0.125–0.25% cushion.

• 60+ days/new builds: Plan staggered locks and revisit at milestones.

• Refi pass: If current rate is ≥0.75% higher than today’s, run numbers now.