Good Morning!

After a few volatile weeks, the bond market is finally catching its breath this morning — and that’s exactly what we needed. The 10-Year Treasury is sitting right around 4.08%, barely changed overnight, with the 2-Year at 3.57% and the 30-Year holding near 4.67%. That kind of stillness in the middle of so much noise is a gift.

Even with headlines about the longest government shutdown in U.S. history (36 days and counting), tariff debates, and tech-sector pullbacks, the bond market isn’t flinching. Investors are waiting for the next real signal — which comes this morning through ADP private payrolls and the ISM Services Index. Both carry more weight than usual with the official data on hold, but for now, the tone is calm, controlled, and constructive.

When the 10-Year holds near 4.1%, mortgage rates tend to stay in the low-6% range — and that’s right where we are. Lenders like predictability. Borrowers like clarity. This market is finally giving us both.

Mortgage Rate Snapshot (MND Daily Survey)

• 30 Yr Fixed: 6.33% (+0.01%)

• 15 Yr Fixed: 5.80% (–0.02%)

• 30 Yr Jumbo: 6.35% (+0.03%)

• 7/6 SOFR ARM: 5.95% (–0.03%)

• 30 Yr FHA: 6.05% (–0.01%)

• 30 Yr VA: 6.06% (–0.02%)

MND summed it up perfectly yesterday: “Rates held steady.” After flirting with their highest levels in three weeks, mortgage pricing stayed flat — and the underlying bonds even improved slightly late in the session. That means lenders may walk in this morning with a small tailwind, especially if bonds behave through ADP and ISM.

Treasury & MBS Check

Steady as she goes. MBS are fractionally better, and the tone is firm.

Lock / Float Playbook

• <15 days: Lock. Protect your closings. The current pricing is fair, and intraday volatility is low.

• 15–30 days: Float carefully. If today’s data cools a bit, you might pick up 5–10bps of improvement.

• 45+ days: Float. The 10-Year looks content between 4.0–4.2%, leaving room for gradual relief.

Talking Points for Clients & Agents

• “Rates are holding steady near 6.3% — that’s stability in a market that’s been anything but.”

• “The 10-Year is calm around 4.1%, which supports confidence for both buyers and sellers.”

• “When volatility cools, lenders tighten margins — and that’s good news for affordability.”

Today’s Focus

• ADP Employment (8:15 AM ET) — Market’s best labor signal this week.

• ISM Services (10:00 AM ET) — Key read on inflation momentum.

• Fed Speaker (Bowman, Madrid) — May hint at policy flexibility going forward.

Bottom Line

Markets are calmer. Rates are stable. And that’s exactly when professionals get ahead.

The 10-Year holding firm near 4.08% tells us the emotional post-Fed reaction has settled into logic again. Bonds are balanced, MBS are steady, and lenders are quietly regaining their footing. This is where you find small wins — a slightly better lock, a more confident buyer, a refi that pencils again.

These aren’t “headline” days, but they’re the days that build pipelines. When everyone else is waiting for a big move, stay consistent. Follow up, quote confidently, and keep your clients in the game. Calm doesn’t mean quiet — it means the market’s giving us room to work. Let’s take it.