The 10-year Treasury felt stuck between 4.10–4.20% over the past couple of weeks due to the government shutdown, yet Friday’s China-tariff headlines created by President Trump was the straw that didn’t just break the camel’s back—it unpacked the whole camel. We slid to about ~4.05% by the close on Friday and we’re now testing ~4.00% this Tuesday morning as everyone waits for Chair Powell’s remarks in Philadelphia today.  Translation: the tariff scare sparked a classic “safety first” bid for Treasuries on Friday, and the follow-through today says the camel is still at baggage claim. Powell’s speech at the NABE meeting (National Association for Business Economics) is the main event; markets tend to get quiet before he talks, then move on the tone he sets. If the 10-year breaks and holds below 4.00%, lenders often pass along small improvements; a pop back above ~4.08–4.10% could claw some of that back. 

Treasury & MBS Check

• 10-Year UST: Hovering right around ~4.00% (one-month low area), with traders in “wait-for-Powell” mode. 

• 2-Year UST: Easing as well—front end leaning toward a “cautious-cuts” outlook.

• 30-Year UST: Slightly lower; long end participating in the rally. 

What it means: A friendly backdrop for mortgage pricing unless Powell turns unexpectedly hawkish.

Mortgage Rates (Big Picture)

• National averages are competitive and range-bound near recent lows; small lender-by-lender tweaks are likely to track the 10-year’s path today. 

• Remember: credits + buydowns often cut monthly payment more than chasing an extra 0.02% on the rate.

Why Bonds Are Moving (or Quiet)

• Catalyst chain: Friday’s tariff scare → risk-off → yields fell. This morning is pre-speech calm with attention on Powell’s tone about the path of cuts and the economy. 

• Backdrop: NABE Annual Meeting is in Philadelphia today; markets often “mark time” into a major Fed speech. 

What This Means for Rate Sheets (UDL Guardrails)

• 10Y < 4.00% (sustained): Bias to ⅛-ish improvements from many lenders.

• 4.00%–4.08%: Sideways; watch for micro-reprices tied to headlines.

• > 4.10%: Risk of mid-day worseners, especially if Powell’s tone is firmer on inflation.

Lock / Float Playbook

• Closings in ≤30 days: Lock. Fed-day headlines can flip the script fast.

• 30–45 days: Lean Lock if DTI is tight or the borrower is payment-sensitive.

• 60+ days: Controlled Float with rate-watch triggers; pair with 2-1 buydowns or permanent buydowns so the borrower wins even if rates wiggle.

Talking Points for Clients & Agents in Plain English

1. “Rates are stable-to-better this morning.” The 10-year is near ~4.00%, a friendly sign for mortgage pricing. 

2. “Powell is the driver today.” His comments can nudge rates; we’ll pivot quickly if needed. 

3. “Payment beats headline rate.” A small rate dip plus seller credits/buydowns often lowers the monthly more than squeezing another 0.02% on the note rate.

4. “Refi check-in is back.” If someone closed in the last year, a quick payment vs. cost review may pencil—no obligation.

Today’s Calendar (ET)

• 12:20 p.m. — Fed Chair Powell at the NABE meeting (primary market catalyst).  National Association of Business Economics (NABE) is a big, policy-heavy conference where Fed officials (including Chair Powell), bank economists, and market pros speak about the outlook for growth, inflation, and interest rates. Because the audience is full of economists and investors, remarks there can move bonds—hence why we’re watching for the 10-year today.

• Earnings: Big banks (JPM, GS, C, WFC) + BLK, JNJ, DPZ, ACI—equity movers, but their credit/customer tone can color the macro backdrop.

Bottom Line

The 10-year’s slide from ~4.15% to ~4.00% since late last week is a real move and a tailwind for mortgage pricing. Enjoy the backdrop, stay nimble around 12:20 p.m., and keep alerts on 4.00% / 4.08% / 4.12% for lock decisions.