Good Morning!

It’s shaping up to be a calm but quietly optimistic start to the week for mortgage rates. Treasury yields are holding steady this morning as investors watch for progress in ending the government shutdown. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped slightly below the key 4.00% mark—resting around 3.98%, signaling modest strength in the bond market. While the moves are small, they continue a healthy trend of stabilization that benefits mortgage pricing. Markets are cautiously optimistic that Washington will find a resolution soon, which has helped ease investor tension and keep yields contained. Add in improving trade sentiment between the U.S. and China, and you’ve got a setup that could keep rates from drifting higher in the near term.

Treasury & MBS Check

The yield curve remains mildly inverted but stable. The 10-year continues to be the key driver for mortgage rates—holding below 4.00% has been an encouraging technical sign for bond buyers and lenders alike.

Mortgage Rates (MND Daily Survey)

Mortgage rates remain steady, reflecting the calm in Treasuries. Lenders are seeing light reprice activity, and small improvements could appear if the 10-year continues to hover just below the 4.00% pivot.

Why Bonds Are Quiet

Investors are in a “wait and see” mode. The shutdown resolution chatter and optimism about a U.S.–China trade thaw are keeping volatility low. The economic calendar is light until Friday’s CPI report, which will be the key inflation signal before next week’s Fed meeting. Until then, we can expect a tight trading range in Treasuries and modest rate movements in MBS.

What This Means for Rate Sheets

• <4.00% on the 10-year: Small lender credits and improved pricing are possible.

• >4.10–4.15%: Expect slight worsening in rate sheets.

• MBS spreads: Remain steady; secondary markets continue to show good demand.

Lock/Float Playbook

• Closings within 15 days: Lock. Protect the file and avoid last-minute volatility.

• 15–30 days: Float cautiously. If the 10-year stays below 4.00%, you might pick up a small improvement.

• 30+ days: Float, but monitor inflation data Friday—volatility could return quickly.

• Refi Pass: Keep in touch with database clients—refis make sense if they can drop 75–100 bps.

Talking Points for Clients & Agents

• “Rates are holding steady near six-month lows, and stability is great news for buyers who’ve been waiting for certainty.”

• “Markets are showing confidence that inflation is cooling and the Fed can stay patient—good signs for housing.”

• “A 10-year Treasury under 4% is the bond market’s way of saying investors expect lower rates ahead.”

Quick Coaching Tip

Confidence over complexity: When explaining rates, skip the jargon. Try, “Mortgage rates move mostly with the 10-year Treasury yield—and since that’s steady right now, buyers can feel more confident locking in.”

Today’s Calendar

• Corporate Earnings: Netflix, GM, Coca-Cola, GE Aerospace

• Economic Data: Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing index

• Upcoming: CPI report Friday – key inflation signal before next week’s Fed decision

Bottom Line

We are in a moment of cautious optimism. The bond market is calm, the 10-year Treasury has broken back below 4.00%, and mortgage rates are showing gentle improvement. A government shutdown resolution and trade progress are both tailwinds for stability. The real test will come Friday with the inflation report—but for now, the path of least resistance for rates is sideways to slightly better. In plain English: no big surprises, just steady footing—a perfect environment for buyers and refinancers to plan confidently.