Good Morning!

After a stretch of sharp swings and mixed messages since last week's Fed meeting, the bond market this week is showing signs of steady footing. The 10-Year Treasury yield, the heartbeat of mortgage pricing, is hovering around 4.09% this morning, down slightly after investors digested another round of manufacturing data and ongoing uncertainty from the government shutdown.

For now, traders are weighing the health of the U.S. economy through the narrow lens of private data — since official reports like JOLTS and Nonfarm Payrolls remain delayed due to the government shutdown. The ISM Manufacturing Index slipped again to 48.7, a reminder that industrial demand continues to cool. That weakness, paired with last week’s “cut-but-cautious” Fed tone, has helped anchor yields below last week’s highs.

The market’s focus today turns to Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, who’s set to speak in Madrid about “stability and growth.” Even subtle comments about inflation or financial conditions could move yields, especially in a data-light week. Still, early indicators show the market leaning toward optimism — a softening economy and cooling inflation both support the view that long-term rates have likely found a near-term ceiling.

And that’s good news for housing. A 10-Year near 4.10% historically supports mortgage rates in the low-6% range, giving borrowers and lenders a window of stability to plan, lock, and act confidently as we head toward mid-November.

Treasury & MBS Check

Bond yields and MBS pricing are both modestly firmer this morning, reflecting steady demand in a calmer trading session.

Mortgage Rates (MND Daily Survey)

• 30 Yr Fixed: 6.34% (+0.06%)

• 15 Yr Fixed: 5.82% (+0.01%)

• 30 Yr Jumbo: 6.32% (+0.02%)

• 30 Yr FHA: 6.06% (+0.05%)

• 30 Yr VA: 6.08% (+0.05%)

Rates have been edging slightly higher over the past week but remain well below the mid-6% peaks from early October. Stability here is key — consistent pricing builds buyer confidence and keeps pipelines active.

Market Snapshot

The Treasury market continues to navigate contradictory signals — weaker manufacturing and strong corporate earnings on one hand, and cautious Fed rhetoric on the other. This tug-of-war is creating balance instead of volatility. Investors are no longer chasing yield moves; they’re positioning for a steady Q4 environment, where inflation drifts lower and mortgage spreads gradually compress.

Even amid the noise, the bond market has regained its rhythm. After spiking 20bps post-Fed last week, yields have now eased back toward equilibrium. The focus now is less about “how low can they go” and more about “can they stay consistent.” That consistency helps mortgage lenders price tighter and gives borrowers confidence to move forward — both critical ingredients for momentum as we head toward year-end.

Lock / Float Playbook

• <15 days: Lock — short-term stability means current pricing is fair value.

• 15–30 days: Float cautiously — moderate downward bias as yields consolidate.

• 45+ days: Float — the 10-Year looks anchored near 4.0–4.1%, leaving room for improvement.

• Refi Candidates: Keep lists warm — a brief yield dip could trigger another small refinance wave.

Talking Points for Clients & Agents

• “The 10-Year Treasury is holding steady around 4.1%, a level that keeps mortgage rates comfortably in the low-6% range.”

• “Markets are calmer this week — less volatility means more predictability for buyers and sellers.”

• “Even small improvements in rates can boost affordability; now’s a good time to get positioned before the next data wave.”

Today’s Calendar

• Fed Vice Chair Bowman Speech (Madrid) — 9:00 AM ET

• ADP Payroll Preview Tomorrow — seen as a stand-in for the delayed jobs report

• Corporate Earnings: AMD, Uber, Shopify, Pfizer, Marriott, Rivian, and more

Bottom Line

The bond market is taking a breath — and that’s exactly what we needed. After last week’s turbulence, the 10-Year Treasury easing back toward 4.09% shows traders are settling into a “wait and see” stance rather than fearing another surge.

This creates a constructive window for lenders and homebuyers alike. Mortgage rates in the low-6% range are becoming the new normal, supported by calmer inflation, a softening economy, and resilient demand. For the housing market, that combination spells stability — not stagnation.

Stay focused, stay consistent, and remember: calm markets are when professionals build pipelines. When others hesitate, this is your moment to move with confidence.