Morning Market Commentary 
Wednesday, October 8, 2025  

Tuesday, October 7, 2025 | 

Good morning Team!

Today has a ‘hurry up and wait’ feel. Treasury yields are hovering near recent levels, and rate sheets aren’t moving much. Think of rates like a ball rolling around in a small box—they can wiggle a little, but they can’t go very far. The government shutdown means we’re missing the usual reports that push rates up or down, so the market is mostly waiting. Traders are listening closely to what Fed officials say and watching headlines for surprises. If nothing big hits, rates should keep bouncing inside that small box today. A strong headline or tough-sounding Fed comment could knock the ball out of the box and make rates move more. Until then, expect a quiet, sideways kind of day.”  

Treasury & MBS Check

• 10-Year UST: ~4.171% (little changed vs. Monday). A tight range remains intact. 

• 2-Year UST: ~3.60% (flat to slightly higher). Curve modestly steeper. 

• 30-Year UST: ~4.76% (up a hair). Long end remains the swing factor on small headlines.

Why quiet? The shutdown is delaying marquee data (e.g., last Friday’s jobs report), limiting catalysts and keeping traders defensive and headline-sensitive. 

Mortgage Rates (MND Daily Survey)

• 30-Yr Fixed: 6.38% (+0.04)

• 15-Yr Fixed: 5.90% (+0.06)

• 30-Yr Jumbo: 6.28% (+0.03)

• 7/6 SOFR ARM: 5.84% (+0.08)

• 30-Yr FHA: 6.07% (+0.04)

• 30-Yr VA: 6.09% (+0.04)

MND notes rates started the week near the top of a very narrow 2.5-week range—translation: the “highs” sound worse than they feel. With no big US data, overseas moves nudged bonds/we rates overnight. 

Why Bonds Are (Mostly) Quiet / What Could Move Them

• Data blackout: With major releases on hold, the market’s “compass” is fuzzy. 

• Fed speak focus: Several Fed officials are on the docket this week (incl. Gov. Stephen Miran today in NYC), and markets will parse every line for hints on the late-October FOMC. 

• Global cross-winds: European politics and risk-on US equity tone can tug long-end yields intraday.