Thursday, October 23, 2025
Brian Livingston
2 min read
October 23, 2025
Good Morning!
It’s another bright start to the day with a lot of eyes on bonds and inflation. Treasury yields ticked slightly higher overnight as investors digested trade headlines and looked ahead to tomorrow’s all-important Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The 10-year Treasury climbed about four basis points to 3.99%, testing that key 4.00% ceiling again, while the 2-year moved up modestly to 3.47%.
The overnight move I don't believe is about fear —rather it’s about positioning. Markets are bracing for fresh inflation data, but most traders believe that even if prices come in a touch hotter, on Friday, the Fed will still cut rates next week. The growing sense is that the economy’s soft spots — from slowing manufacturing to weaker hiring — matter more right now than a few tenths of a percent on inflation. That’s good news for bonds, and good news for mortgage rates, which are holding right near their lowest levels in nearly three years.
Trade is also back in focus after President Trump confirmed that his upcoming meeting with China’s President Xi is officially scheduled. While markets love clarity, there’s still plenty of speculation about new U.S. export restrictions on China — and every headline adds a little ripple to yields. Still, the tone in the bond market remains orderly, and mortgage rates continue to benefit from that stability.
Treasury & MBS Check
Maturity | Yield | Change |
|---|---|---|
1-Month | 4.02% | +0.01 |
3-Month | 3.89% | +0.01 |
6-Month | 3.79% | Unch |
1-Year | 3.58% | +0.02 |
2-Year | 3.47% | +0.03 |
10-Year | 3.99% | +0.04 |
30-Year | 4.58% | +0.04 |
Bond yields are pressing gently higher but remain comfortably below last month’s peaks. The 10-year continues to hover just below the psychological 4.00% mark — a zone that’s acted as strong resistance for weeks.
Mortgage Rates (MND Daily Survey)
Product | Rate | Change |
|---|---|---|
30-Yr Fixed | 6.17% | +0.00% |
15-Yr Fixed | 5.73% | -0.02% |
30-Yr Jumbo | 6.10% | -0.05% |
7/6 SOFR ARM | 5.71% | +0.01% |
30-Yr FHA | 5.90% | +0.00% |
30-Yr VA | 5.91% | -0.01% |
Even with Treasury yields nudging higher, mortgage pricing is steady. Lenders are maintaining aggressive pricing thanks to strong bond demand ahead of tomorrow’s CPI data.
Why Bonds Moved
Trade developments and anticipation of the inflation report are the twin drivers this morning. The scheduled U.S.–China meeting offers hope for stability, but talk of potential export restrictions created minor caution in overnight trading. Markets are also mindful of rising oil prices, which can bleed into short-term inflation expectations. Still, the consensus among analysts is clear: a 0.4% monthly CPI gain and 3.1% annual core rate won’t derail a Fed cut.
What This Means for Rate Sheets
A brief uptick in the 10-year Treasury could lead to slightly mixed pricing early today, but lenders remain in an extremely competitive range. If the 10-year stays below 4.00%, rate sheets should hold firm — with potential for improvement tomorrow if inflation data behaves.
Lock / Float Playbook
Closings within 15 days: Lock — we’re at multi-year lows and protecting gains makes sense.
15–30 days: Float with caution — CPI volatility could reward patience.
45+ days: Float — the bigger trend still favors lower rates into year-end.
Talking Points for Clients & Agents
“Rates are holding right near their lowest levels in almost three years, even as Treasury yields edge higher.”
“Tomorrow’s inflation data will likely set the tone for the rest of the year. If CPI comes in as expected or cooler, rates could drop again.”
“Even a small rate move can make a big difference in affordability — now’s the time to review pre-approvals and refinancing opportunities.”
Today’s Calendar
Initial Jobless Claims (expected 230K)
Existing Home Sales (expected +1.6%)
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
Corporate earnings: Ford, Intel, T-Mobile, American Airlines, and more.
Bottom Line
After weeks of calm trading, the bond market is stretching its legs ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report — but the overall tone remains friendly for mortgage rates. The 10-year Treasury is still anchored below 4.00%, the Fed is expected to cut next week, and housing affordability is quietly improving.
Mortgage rates are now sitting at their lowest point in nearly three years, and borrowers are starting to notice. Refinance demand is climbing, purchase activity is stabilizing, and optimism is returning. The market may wiggle a bit today as traders position for Friday’s data, but the bigger story hasn’t changed: momentum is on our side.
So keep the energy up — reconnect with your database, reach out to every client still sitting above 6.75% for a possible refinance, and remind your Realtor partners that stable rates mean stronger buyers. The opportunity window is wide open this morning.