Good morning Team!

Good morning, team—happy Thursday! The market just handed us a Starbucks venti pumpkin-spice setup: ADP report yesterday printed –32k jobs, and bonds perked up. At the same time it's day 2 of the government shutdown—my bet: it doesn’t go past two weeks, and President Trump may try to use the moment to trim the federal payroll even more.  With government data on pause, ADP/ISM are the loudest voices. The ADP miss yesterday nudged the 10-year toward ~4.10% (yields ↓ = bond prices ↑), which keeps MBS steadier—textbook “bad data = good bonds.” Teaching moment: softer labor data → higher MBS → friendlier rate sheets. We’ve got a green light signal to lock smart, lock soon, and turn it into funded wins.  

Treasury & MBS Check

• 10-Year UST: ~4.10–4.12% after ADP; range remains 4.10–4.20% near-term. 

• Curve: short-term Treasuries (like the 2-year), which react most to Fed policy, fell in yield more than—or at least as much as—the long end after the weak jobs data. In bond-speak, the front end “led the rally,” because softer jobs = higher odds of Fed cuts sooner, so short yields drop fastest.

• Context: Shutdown delays official NFP (Friday's job reports); private data temporarily  will “set the tone.” 

Mortgage Rates (MND Daily Survey)

• 30Y Fixed: 6.37% (unch)

• 15Y Fixed: 5.88% (-0.01)

• Jumbo 30Y: 6.27% (-0.01)

• 7/6 SOFR ARM: 5.78% (-0.04)

• FHA 30Y: 6.05% (unch)

• VA 30Y: 6.06% (-0.01)
  Last update: Oct 1. 

Why Bonds Moved

• Labor surprise: ADP showed –32k vs. ~+45k expected → softer growth signal → yields down. 

• Data blackout: With NFP likely delayed, private series (ADP/ISM) fill the gap and can create outsized swings. 

What This Means for Rate Sheets

• Better bias When the 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.10% and MBS prices are rising (“green”), lenders are more likely to improve or hold rate sheets.

• Reprice risk (worse) If yields rebound toward ~4.20%—especially after a stronger-than-expected ISM report or negative news—lenders may reprice for the worse (higher rates/worse costs).

Lock/Float Playbook

• Inside 7 days: Lock  (don’t gamble with thin data/liquidity).

• 8–21 days: Lock on strength (10Y ≤4.12% / MBS green). 

• >21 days: Cautious float OK; to float but flip to lock on moves above ~4.20% or if ISM surprises.

Talking Points for Clients & Agents

• “Rates improved on softer private payrolls; with official jobs data delayed, ADP/ISM are the drivers this week.” 

• “The 10-year near ~4.10% supports steady-to-better pricing—we’ll compare a permanent buydown vs. closing-cost credit and lock when the math says go.” 

• “Shutdown delays = fewer scheduled landmines, but bigger reactions to the data we do get.”

Today’s Calendar (ET)

• Challenger Job Cuts (Sept) — last notable labor read this week.

• ISM Manufacturing & private-sector trackers remain in focus while NFP (official government job report) is delayed. 

Bottom Line

• ADP showed weaker hiring and the government is shut down, so markets expect the Fed to be easier on rates. That usually means the 10-year Treasury rate drifts lower and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) stay steady or improve.

• When bond/MBS prices are up (your pricing screen is “green”) and your loans are closing within about three weeks, go ahead and lock the rate.

• Keep alerts on for ISM and other private reports, because with the jobs report delayed, those can move rates quickly.

• If the 10-year drops toward about 4.10%, check with your lender about float-down/relock options to see if you can improve the borrower’s pricing.