Good Morning!

The bond market took a couple of big hits yesterday — and still managed to keep its composure somewhat.

The ADP report came in stronger than expected, showing 42,000 new private-sector jobs versus the forecasted 22,000. The Supreme Court questioned Trump’s tariff policies, with even conservative justices suggesting that these levies may function as a tax on Americans. And the services sector? It accelerated at its fastest pace since February, reminding everyone that the U.S. economy still has plenty of energy left.

In short — yesterday delivered all the ingredients for a selloff in bonds. Yet this morning, the 10-Year Treasury is easing slightly, holding near 4.14%, with yields modestly lower across maturities. The bond market’s resilience says a lot — investors are processing strong data, political noise, and Fed uncertainty, yet choosing stability over fear.

A Reality Check for December Rate Cut Hopes

While the market remains hopeful for another Fed rate cut in December, it may be overreaching. Stronger job creation, faster service-sector growth, and sticky inflation pressures don’t exactly make a compelling case for immediate easing. Even some dovish voices inside the Fed have acknowledged that inflation’s next leg lower will take patience — not urgency.

The takeaway? The Fed may choose to pause again in December, letting recent cuts work through the economy before committing to another move. That would keep the 10-Year comfortably in its current range near 4.10–4.25%, which historically supports mortgage rates in the low-to-mid 6% range.

Mortgage Rate Snapshot (MND Daily Survey)

• 30 Yr Fixed: 6.37% (+0.04%)

• 15 Yr Fixed: 5.86% (+0.06%)

• 30 Yr Jumbo: 6.40% (+0.05%)

• 7/6 SOFR ARM: 6.03% (+0.08%)

• 30 Yr FHA: 6.09% (+0.04%)

• 30 Yr VA: 6.10% (+0.04%)

Mortgage rates edged slightly higher yesterday in response to the stronger data, but the move was modest. The real story is stability — the 30-Year Fixed has hovered within a few basis points of 6.35% all week, showing that lenders are confident and spreads are holding firm.

Treasury & MBS Check

Shorter maturities led this morning’s rally, suggesting that traders see inflation cooling but growth staying resilient — the ideal mix for steady mortgage pricing.

Lock / Float Playbook

Until recently, I favored floating for 15 days or longer, but market volatility has picked up meaningfully this week. For clients within 30 days of closing, I now recommend locking their rate — it’s the smart move in a market that’s testing its footing.  

• <30 Days: Lock — you’re in the red zone. Protect current pricing.

• 30 - 45 Days: Float with caution. Slight downside bias in yields could reward patience.

• 45+ Days: Float. The market tone feels constructive, not volatile.

Talking Points for Clients & Agents

• “Rates are somewhat holding firm despite stronger data — a great sign of stability.”

• “The 10-Year Treasury around 4.14% keeps mortgage rates in the low 6s.”

• “Markets may be too eager for another Fed cut — which means this calm window is a real opportunity.”

Today’s Focus

• Challenger Job Cuts Report — Key signal for labor-market cooling.

• Unit Labor Costs & Productivity Data — The Fed’s inflation pressure gauge.

• Fed Commentary — Listen for any recalibration of December cut expectations.

Bottom Line

After a stormy Wednesday filled with market-moving headlines, bonds are finding their balance. That alone is powerful. The 10-Year’s quiet drift near 4.14% says investors are confident enough to exhale — and that creates breathing room for borrowers.

The market may be overreaching for another Fed cut in December, but that doesn’t change what’s in front of us: a steady, range bound Treasury and a mortgage market that’s holding its ground. Stability breeds opportunity. These are the moments where consistent activity — calls, updates, and agent communication — matter most.

Don’t wait for the next “big move” to reconnect. The calm before a catalyst is where the best deals are built. Stay sharp, stay optimistic, and keep leading with clarity.