Good morning!

We are starting the week with a calm, slightly-firmer bond market and mortgage rates that are essentially flat. The big line in the sand remains the 4.00% level on the 10-year Treasury. We’re hovering just above it this morning, which means rate sheets should open close to Friday’s marks with a small bias toward “unchanged to a hair worse.” The story this week is simple: the government shutdown has delayed key data, so Friday’s Consumer Price Index report (the pushed September print) will carry extra weight ahead of next week’s Fed meeting. Until then, markets are drifting on light headlines: a bit of easing on U.S.–China tariff worries, European bond jitters after France’s downgrade, and fresh political calm in Japan. Our job: keep clients focused on the near-term rates and be ready to act quickly if the Consumer Price Index surprises at the end of the week. 

Treasury & MBS Check

• 10-Year Treasury: 4.01%, up a whisker this morning. The 4.00% level is the pivot; trading just above it suggests a tight, choppy range today.

• 2-Year Treasury: 3.47%, little changed; short-end is quiet, consistent with the “wait for CPI” mood.

• 30-Year Treasury: 4.60%, essentially flat.

• MBS Spreads: Stable to slightly constructive vs. last week; primary/secondary spreads remain in the same range.

Mortgage Rates (MND Daily Survey)

• 30-Yr Fixed: 6.23% (unch)

• 15-Yr Fixed: 5.81% (+0.01)

• 30-Yr Jumbo: 6.20% (unch)

• 7/6 SOFR ARM: 5.70% (−0.01)

• 30-Yr FHA: 5.99% (+0.01)

• 30-Yr VA: 6.01% (+0.02)

Takeaway: Rate sheets today should look very similar to Friday. Small intraday moves will track the 10-year around 4.00%.

Why Bonds Are Quiet / Why Bonds Moved

• Data vacuum: With the shutdown, the usual drip of economic reports is paused. That’s kept volatility in check.

• Friday’s CPI is the main act: A cool or “as-expected” CPI would likely push yields lower and help rate sheets. A hot print risks a break above 4.05% on the 10-year and some rate pressure.

• Global color: France’s downgrade is nudging EU yields up, while Japan’s political clarity is boosting risk appetite—both mild cross-currents, not trend-setters today.

• Tariff tone: Headlines suggest some de-escalation risk-premium coming out of U.S.–China tariff fears—incrementally bond-friendly.

What This Means for Rate Sheets

• Opening bias: Flat to slightly worse vs. Friday if the 10-year holds >4.00%.

• Reprice risk (worse): If the 10-year pops above ~4.05–4.08%, expect some lenders to shade worse.

• Reprice potential (better): A dip back below 4.00% and especially toward 3.95% could invite small mid-day improvements.

• MBS note: With spreads steady, direction will mostly follow Treasurys until CPI.

Lock / Float Playbook

• Closing in ≤30days: Lock. Protect against a CPI upside surprise and headline risk.

• 30 days plus : Leaning Lock. You can float the morning if 10-year dips under 4.00%, but use tight alerts.

• 31–45 days: Data-dependent Float. If we’re sub-4.00% and calm, a cautious float is fine; set triggers.

• Refi pass targets: Re-run files at 0.50–0.75 pts in cost improvement or ~0.375% in rate drop; today looks like a “check but don’t chase” day.

Talking Points for Clients & Agents

• “Rates are stable heading into a big inflation report on Friday. Expect small day-to-day moves until then.”

• “The 10-year at ~4.01% is the market’s center of gravity. A drop back under 4.00% would help rate sheets.”

• “If you’re close to the finish line, it’s smart to lock. If you have time, we’ll float with alerts into Friday.”

• “We’ll price both fixed and ARM options side-by-side today—ARMs remain a useful payment tool in a stable range.”

Today’s Calendar & Next Catalyst

• Today (light): Limited U.S. data due to the shutdown; watch for treasury auctions/headlines.

• Big One: Friday, Oct 24 – September Consumer Price Index ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.

Quick Coaching Tip

When a client asks, “Are rates going up or down?” try this:
“We’re in a tight range right now. The big number is Friday’s inflation report—if it’s tame, we likely get a rate tailwind. If it’s hot, we’ll pivot fast. Either way, I’ll time your lock for the best outcome.”
(Then set a same-day follow-up text with a simple green/yellow/red status tied to the 10-year: <4.00% = green, 4.00–4.05% = yellow, >4.05% = red.)

Bottom Line

We’re entering a “quiet before the data” kind of week. The 10-year Treasury is sitting right on the 4.00% pivot, and mortgage rates are basically unchanged. That’s good news for pipeline stability and for keeping buyers engaged. Our edge is speed and clarity: if CPI comes in cool on Friday, we’ll be ready to pounce on any rate dip; if it runs hot, we’ll already have locks protected. Stay close to the 10-year, keep client expectations simple, and use side-by-side pricing to turn rate stability into signed contracts.