Monday, November 3, 2025
Brian Livingston
2 min read
November 3, 2025
Good morning!
The first week of November kicks off with a healthy dose of optimism as Treasury yields and mortgage rates drift lower, bringing welcome relief to rate sheets and home buyers alike. Investors are entering November cautiously but confident, focusing on bonds as the **U.S. government shutdown—now in its 34th day since starting October 1—**continues to cloud the release of key economic data. Still, the tone in financial markets remains constructive. The 10-Year Treasury yield dipped to 4.085%, hovering just above the key 4.00% support level, while stocks are coming off a strong week, buoyed by upbeat corporate earnings and easing trade tensions. With rate pressures cooling and the Federal Reserve signaling a pause in further cuts until December's Fed meeting, the broader setup favors steady-to-lower mortgage rates as we move deeper into Q4.
Treasury & MBS Check
Term | Yield | Change |
|---|---|---|
2-Year | 3.584% | ↓ 0.022 |
10-Year | 4.085% | ↓ 0.016 |
30-Year | 4.663% | ↓ 0.006 |
The 10-Year Treasury continues to trade in a tight range near the 4.00% “pivot zone,” which has acted as a magnet for rate stability. A decisive move below 4.00% could trigger a new wave of MBS buying and further improve lender pricing.
Mortgage Rates (MND Daily Survey)
Product | Rate | Δ |
|---|---|---|
30-Yr Fixed | 6.28% | ↓ 0.05% |
15-Yr Fixed | 5.81% | ↓ 0.04% |
30-Yr Jumbo | 6.30% | Flat |
7/6 SOFR ARM | 5.89% | ↓ 0.06% |
30-Yr FHA | 6.01% | ↓ 0.04% |
30-Yr VA | 6.03% | ↓ 0.04% |
We’re seeing three consecutive sessions of small but meaningful rate improvements—an encouraging sign that momentum is turning more supportive for borrowers.
Why Bonds Are Quiet
With the government shutdown ongoing since Oct. 1, the bond market is operating with limited official data, as major reports like the October jobs report have been delayed. Traders are instead turning to Wednesday’s ADP private payrolls as the key labor indicator this week. Meanwhile, growing bipartisan discussions in Washington suggest the shutdown may be approaching its final stretch, which could restore confidence and market transparency once data releases resume.
What This Means for Rate Sheets
Mortgage-backed securities are modestly firmer this morning, in line with the dip in Treasury yields. Pricing should open slightly improved from Friday.
<4.00% on the 10-Year: Expect moderate rate sheet improvements (≈0.125–0.25%).
4.10–4.15% range: Expect mostly neutral or slightly worse pricing.
Lock/Float Playbook
Closings within 15 days: Lock — protect gains.
15 plus days: Float cautiously; keep eyes on midweek data.
30+ days: Float — yields could test below 4.00% if the shutdown nears resolution.
Talking Points for Clients & Agents
“Mortgage rates are improving as the 10-Year Treasury dips near 4.00%.”
“The ongoing government shutdown is keeping official data quiet, but bond markets remain calm and rates continue to ease.”
“This is a great window for pre-approvals and rate monitoring—borrowers can benefit from incremental daily gains.”
Today’s Calendar
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct) — expected 49.2
Construction Spending (Sept)
Earnings: Palantir, Vertex, Simon Property Group, Realty Income
Bottom Line
After a volatile fall season, early November is giving the housing and mortgage markets a much-needed breather. The combination of softer Treasury yields, easing rate pressures, and resilient investor confidence points toward a steady start to the month. If the shutdown resolution and midweek data align favorably, we could see the 10-Year break below 4.00%—potentially pushing average 30-year rates closer to 6.125% by mid-November.
For now, the story is simple but powerful: stability is returning. Every tenth of a percent counts, and this calmer bond environment could translate into renewed borrower confidence as we move into the final stretch of 2025. Let’s capitalize on it.