Good Morning!

Halloween might be about ghosts and shadows, but the only thing haunting markets today is uncertainty — and even that comes with opportunity. Treasury yields edged slightly higher overnight, with the 10-Year hovering near 4.10% as investors continued to process the Fed’s “cut but cautious” tone and navigate the ongoing government data blackout.

Markets are balancing optimism from blockbuster corporate earnings — Apple, Amazon, and Google all surprised to the upside — with a dose of reality from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who reminded investors that another rate cut in December is “far from a foregone conclusion.” Despite that, the overall tone remains constructive. Stocks are up pre-market, and the 10-Year yield remains contained, a sign that the bond market is finding its footing after Wednesday’s turbulence.

The 30-Year fixed mortgage rate jumped slightly higher to 6.33%, following the familiar post-Fed pattern where bond repricing overshoots before settling down. In other words: the market’s reaction was emotional, not directional. With yields stabilizing, we could see mortgage rates flatten — or even dip — heading into early November as volatility cools.

Today’s focus turns to the Chicago PMI and Fed speeches from regional presidents Hammack, Logan, and Bostic. Traders are looking for confirmation that the Fed’s path forward will lean flexible rather than rigid, especially as the shutdown delays key economic data.

Treasury & MBS Check

MBS spreads are holding steady — the market has already priced in the Fed’s October move, but not necessarily a December one.

Mortgage Rates (MND Daily Survey)

• 30 Yr Fixed: 6.33% (+0.06%)

• 15 Yr Fixed: 5.85% (+0.03%)

• 30 Yr Jumbo: 6.30% (+0.10%)

• 30 Yr FHA: 6.05% (+0.05%)

• 30 Yr VA: 6.07% (+0.05%)

Refinance applications remain up over 100% year-over-year, proving borrowers are watching closely for any dip in rates.

Why Bonds Have Moved

The Fed’s mixed messaging is the main driver — cutting rates while warning against assuming more cuts. Markets had priced in near-certainty of another move in December, but Powell’s press conference pushed that expectation back toward a “maybe.” Combine that with limited economic data due to the shutdown, and traders are relying more heavily on company earnings and Fed commentary to guide expectations.

Still, risk appetite is holding firm. Stocks are trending higher, AI-driven companies are dominating headlines, and global markets are mostly positive. That blend of stability and caution often creates small windows where bonds strengthen just enough to help lenders reprice more favorably.

Lock / Float Playbook

• <15 days: Lock — lenders are widening margins slightly to offset volatility.

• 15–30 days: Cautiously Float — momentum suggests stability as post-Fed dust settles.

• 45+ days: Float — room for improvement as yields consolidate near 4.00%.

• Refi Candidates: Revisit your lists — rising rates won’t last long; take advantage of short-term dips.

Talking Points for Clients & Agents

• “Even though the Fed cut rates, mortgage rates actually moved higher — a reminder that the Fed controls short-term lending, not mortgage bonds.”

• “Markets are stabilizing after an emotional week. With yields holding near 4%, we’re entering a window where lenders can sharpen pricing again.”

• “The next big catalysts are inflation readings and any updates from the Fed speakers today — both could offer a setup for early-November rate relief.”

Today’s Calendar

• 8:30 AM ET: Personal Income & Spending

• 9:45 AM ET: Chicago PMI (expected: 42)

• 10:00 AM ET: Fed speakers — Hammack, Logan, and Bostic

• Corporate Earnings: Exxon, Chevron, AbbVie, Colgate-Palmolive, Dominion, and T. Rowe Price

Bottom Line

Even with Halloween in the air, there’s no reason to fear the bond market. After a whirlwind week of Fed decisions, press conferences, and a government data blackout, the 10-Year Treasury — up roughly 10 basis points since Wednesday’s meeting — appears to be finding its footing near 4.10%, a level that historically aligns with mortgage rates in the low 6% range. This stability, combined with strong earnings and calmer global trade news, suggests the market is beginning to settle into its new rhythm.

We’re entering a constructive zone for borrowers, where slight dips in yields could quickly turn into better lock opportunities. Stay nimble, stay positive, and use every market pause to your advantage. When the fog lifts — and it will — those who stayed active and ready will lead the charge into year-end.