Friday, October 3, 2025

Brian Livingston
2 min read
October 3, 2025
Good morning Team!
and happy Friday! We start day three of the shutdown with markets in “steady but alert” mode. With the Labor Department’s big reports (including today’s jobs report) on hold, investors are flying mostly by private gauges. That’s kept the 10-year Treasury in a tight lane near ~4.08–4.10% this morning—little changed—as traders weigh how long the shutdown drags on and what it means for the Fed’s late-October decision. Fewer official data “landmines” can calm day-to-day swings, but the handful of private reads we do get pack a bigger punch. Bottom line: a calmer 10-year helps mortgage pricing hold its ground, and that’s a constructive backdrop for smart, timely locks.
Treasury & MBS Check
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is sitting around 4.08–4.10% this morning, barely moving. In other words, the market’s stuck in a tight “range” (no clear up or down trend), so rate sheets are likely to stay steady unless a surprise headline/data point shakes things up.
Shutdown effect: With federal data paused, private surveys carry outsized sway until DC reopens.
Mortgage Rates (MND Daily Survey)
30Y Fixed: 6.36% (-0.01)
15Y Fixed: 5.87% (-0.01)
Jumbo 30Y: 6.26% (-0.01)
7/6 SOFR ARM: 5.79% (+0.01)
FHA 30Y: 6.05% (unch)
VA 30Y: 6.07% (+0.01)
Last update: Oct 2.
Why Bonds Are Quiet
Data blackout: No official NFP today; markets lean on private indicators, which can still move yields but usually keep us in a tighter band absent a shock.
What This Means for Rate Sheets
When 10Y ~4.08–4.10% and MBS are green, expect steady-to-slightly-better pricing.
A pop back toward ~4.20% on a hot private survey/headline would raise worse-reprice risk.
Lock / Float Playbook (Plain English)
Closing ≤ 7 days: Lock. Protect wins; thin data can still spark surprise moves.
8–21 days: Lock while bonds are moving down and (10Y near ~4.10% with MBS up).
>21 days: Cautious float OK; flip to lock if 10Y pushes above ~4.12% or headlines turn risk-on.
Talk Tracks for Clients & Agents
“With the shutdown, no government jobs report—so rates are taking cues from private data instead.”
“The 10-year around 4.1% is helping keep mortgage pricing steady today.”
“We’ll show buydown vs. closing-cost credit side-by-side and lock when the math says ‘go.’”
Bottom line:
Rates are calm and mortgage pricing is steady. If your loan is closing in the next 1–3 weeks lock the rate. Watch private reports (like ISM).