Good Morning, UDL Team!

What a way to end the week. We finally got a fresh read on inflation and it came in cooler than expected. Bonds cheered immediately: the 10-year Treasury dipped below 4.00% right after the report, a level that’s acted like a “speed limit” for months. The fact that we slipped under it tells you the bond market believes inflation is easing and that the Fed is set to cut again next week.

Here’s today’s setup: prices aren’t running away, the jobs market has softened enough to keep the Fed on a gentle-easing path, and investors are rewarding that combo by bidding up Treasuries (yields down). For mortgage borrowers, that’s the sweet spot. Even with a little intraday wobble, the 10-year is hovering right around the 4% line and mortgage pricing is holding near the best levels in almost three years. This is exactly the backdrop where smart outreach — refis, MI drops, cash-out debt consolidations — can turn into quick wins for your pipeline.

CPI at a Glance (September)

• Headline CPI: 3.0% y/y (softer than the 3.1% forecast)

• Core CPI: 3.0% y/y (also softer than 3.1% expected)

• Month-over-month: Headline +0.3%, Core +0.2% (both cooler than expected)
  Takeaway: The report reinforces a quarter-point Fed cut next week and boosts odds of another cut in December.

Treasury Check (post-CPI)

Yields and prices move opposite; lower yields = friendlier mortgage pricing.

Mortgage Rates (context)

Rates are holding near cycle lows. As of yesterday’s MND Daily Survey, the 30-yr fixed was roughly 6.17%, with FHA/VA hovering just under 6.0%. Lenders this morning are largely steady to slightly better following CPI. (Individual lender sheets will vary.)

Why Bonds Rallied

• Cooler inflation reduces the need for tight policy.

• Fed path: Markets now see a high-probability cut next week and strong odds for another in December.

• Shutdown delay didn’t change the message: inflation is trending in the right direction for bonds.

What This Means for Rate Sheets

• With the 10-year testing <4.00%, lenders can keep aggressive pricing.

• If the 10-year holds below 4.00%, expect stable to slightly better intraday pricing.

• A bounce back above ~4.05% could shave a bit off the morning improvement, but the broader bias is bullish for rates.

Lock / Float Playbook

• ≤ 15 days to close: Lock — we’re at multi-year lows; protect wins.

• 15–30 days: Float with a plan — watch the markets carefully(e.g., 10-year  > 4.05%) to lock in if we back up.

• 45+ days: Float — the trend and Fed path favor you, but set alerts.

Talking Points for Clients & Agents

• “Today’s inflation report came in cooler than expected. That helped the 10-year fall under 4% and kept mortgage rates near three-year lows.”

• “The Fed is widely expected to cut rates next week, with high odds of another cut in December.”

• “This is a great window to refinance or boost buying power — even a small rate drop can cut the payment meaningfully.”

Today’s Calendar (high level)

• CPI (released): cooler than forecast

• S&P Global PMIs, New Home Sales, Michigan Sentiment (later today)

• Earnings: Procter & Gamble, Sanofi, HCA, General Dynamics, Illinois Tool Works, Booz Allen Hamilton, and more

Bottom Line

Bonds got the print they wanted. Inflation cooled, the 10-year slipped under 4%, and the market is effectively locking in a Fed cut next week with strong odds for December. For us, that translates to mortgage rates holding near their lowest levels in almost three years — precisely the kind of backdrop where pipelines grow fast if we act fast.

So make today count: pull your refi lists (2022–2024 vintages, 6.5–7.5% rates, HELOC/cash-out candidates), ping every pre-approval about improved affordability, and nudge agents that rate-driven payment relief is real. The tone is calm and constructive in bonds, and momentum is on our side. If the 10-year stays anchored near or under 4.00%, this tailwind can carry us right into next week’s Fed cut — and into more wins for your borrowers.