Good morning Team!

Today's bond market opens to a relatively steady cadence. Yet, temperatures around Washington DC are rising higher and President Trump is now suggesting back pay for  government workers that are furloughed or the ones working will not receive back pay when the government reopens. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury is basically unchanged around ~4.121%, and mortgage rates are holding in a tight three-week band. Because the government shutdown paused the big economic reports, traders are taking their cues from Fed minutes and Fed speakers instead of fresh data. The minutes showed the Fed cut in September but is split on how many cuts come next, which keeps markets cautious but calm. Unless we get a surprise headline or a hawkish sound bite, expect small, orderly tweaks to rate sheets rather than big swings. 

Treasury & MBS Check

• 10-Year UST: ~4.12% this morning, little changed; long end a touch softer. Translation: stable backdrop for rate sheets. 

• Fed watch: Minutes confirmed broad support for the September cut, but divided views on further easing. Markets lean toward another quarter-point cut at the late-October meeting. 

Mortgage Rates (MND / daily survey tone)

• 30-Yr Fixed ~6.36%, 

• 15-Yr ~5.87%, Jumbo ~6.28%, 

• 7/6 SOFR ARM ~5.83%, 

• FHA ~6.05%, VA ~6.08%—all slightly lower or flat versus earlier in the week and still inside a narrow range. 

What’s driving the calm

• Data blackout: With key reports delayed, there’s less fuel for big moves; traders are leaning on Fed commentary instead. 

• Fed minutes tone: “Cut in Sept, debate the pace from here.” That nudges expectations but doesn’t break the range. 

Reprice Risk 

• Better if the 10-year drifts and holds under ~4.10% into the afternoon.

• Worse if the 10-year pops above ~4.15–4.20% on a risk-on equity push or a hawkish Fed remark. Keep an eye on long-end chatter. 

Lock / Float Playbook

• Closings ≤15 days: Lock the calm.

• 30–45 days: Lock bias; float only with alerts on the 10-year and a 0.125–0.25% cushion.

• 60+ days / new builds: Use staggered locks (and builder credits) with planned checkpoints.

• Refi opportunities: If a client’s current rate is ~0.75%+ above today’s quote, run numbers now and consider float-down options where available.

Talking Points for Clients & Agents

• “Rates are steady because the usual data is on hold during the shutdown; Fed talk is steering the market today.” 

• “The 10-year near ~4.12% usually means familiar-looking rate sheets unless a surprise headline hits.” 

• “ARMs vs fixed: The 7/6 SOFR ARM is still meaningfully below 30-yr fixed; great to review payment options and long-term plans.” 

Today’s Calendar (market movers to watch)

• Fed speak + follow-through from FOMC minutes—any hint on the pace of cuts could nudge the back end of the curve. Markets still price high odds of an October trim. 

Bottom Line

Stable, headline-driven day. The 10-year around ~4.12% and mortgage rates holding firm point to small, orderly pricing changes unless a Fed headline stirs things up. Lock near-term files 30 days or less, float tactically on longer timelines with alerts on the 10-year, and use the calm to coach payment options (buydowns/ARMs) and protect active contracts.