Good morning!

What a week it’s been. The bond market continues to keep us on our toes as traders navigate another day of limited visibility. With the federal government still shut down, official economic data remains offline, leaving investors to rely on private reports, sentiment surveys, and instinct to gauge the true health of the economy. Even with all that uncertainty, the 10-year Treasury has managed to hold steady near 4.10% at the end of the week, showing remarkable stability given the lack of direction. At this level, mortgage rates continue to hold firm in the low 6% range, which remains a solid opportunity for homebuyers heading into the weekend.

Treasury & Rate Check

Mortgage Rates (MND Daily Survey)

Rates ticked slightly lower yesterday, reflecting modest bond market improvement as traders digested a mix of layoff data, cautious Fed remarks, and shifting sentiment around a December rate cut.

What’s Moving the Market

Normally, today would feature the much-anticipated nonfarm payrolls report, but for the second month in a row, it’s been delayed due to the government shutdown. Economists had expected a drop of around 60,000 jobs and a slight rise in unemployment to 4.5%. Without it, markets are leaning on private data for guidance — and that’s where the Challenger, Gray & Christmas report came in hot yesterday: over 153,000 layoffs announced in October, nearly triple September’s level. That’s the worst October since 2003 and part of what’s now shaping up to be the toughest layoff year since 2009.

Even with that softening tone, the 10-year Treasury yield remains pinned near 4.10%, showing that investors are taking the mixed labor data in stride. With so much missing data, small reports like Challenger or ADP can create exaggerated market reactions — a reality we’ll continue to face until the government reopens.

Lock/Float Playbook

• 30+ Days Out: Still room to float if you can handle a little risk. Market tone is stable but headline-sensitive.

• 30 Days or Less: I’m recommending you lock. Volatility can return quickly when traders are guessing instead of reacting to data.

The Bottom Line

Despite the noise, rates are ending the week on steady footing. The 10-year Treasury is holding the line at 4.10%, and mortgage rates remain solidly in the low 6% range — right in that “sweet spot” that continues to motivate buyers who thought they missed their chance earlier this year.

Keep in mind, once the government reopens and the flood of delayed economic data hits, we could see sharp movement in either direction. Until then, our best play is steady communication with clients and clear guidance on locking strategy. Remember — in uncertain markets, leadership is what clients remember most. Be the calm in the noise.